Rússia propõe pactos de não agressão com membros individuais da OTAN na nova arquitetura de segurança europeia

Por que importa

A proposal involving separate Russian security commitments to individual NATO members could reshape European security arrangements while deepening bilateral ties between Moscow and allied states. The discussions also link a broader European security framework with negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and establish postwar guarantees. European officials remain divided over whether the architecture should be discussed before progress on a ceasefire, while US officials have expressed openness to it.

O que aconteceu

At a security conference in Moscow on 11 November, Alexei Drobinin, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's foreign policy planning department, presented three options for a new European security architecture. The first calls for a collective defense alliance or bilateral mutual-assistance agreements similar to Russia's arrangements with Belarus and North Korea. The second involves political commitments not to support the other side's adversaries in the event of aggression, resembling Moscow's agreement with Iran. The third provides for bilateral mutual non-aggression pacts, which Drobinin said could be concluded with individual NATO members. Under that proposal, states signing such pacts could receive additional individual security guarantees from Russia.

The trilateral Ukraine-US-Russia negotiations took place in Abu Dhabi on 10 November and resumed after an interruption dating back to February. The first round covered security guarantees, Russian demands and the postwar future. Vladimir Medinsky described the new European security system as the central topic of the two-day meeting, although he did not disclose the specific questions discussed. The Ukrainian negotiating team briefed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the outcomes on 11 November.

O que dizem as fontes ucranianas

Ukrainian coverage focused on Russia's proposed non-aggression pacts with individual NATO members and the three models of a European security architecture. The reporting highlighted the connection with the Abu Dhabi negotiations, European resistance to discussing broader security arrangements before a ceasefire in Ukraine, and the emphasis on individual Russian security guarantees for states that join the arrangements.

O que dizem as fontes internacionais

International reporting attributes the proposal to Russian officials and presents the Abu Dhabi negotiations as the context for European security discussions. It describes US openness to a new architecture and Kushner's proposal to revive the Russia-NATO Council as parallel diplomatic developments. Reported demands concerning NATO troop levels are presented as unconfirmed assessments by diplomatic sources rather than established Russian positions.

Onde as versões divergem

Before the talks, the Kremlin said the meeting would take place without European participation, but a European delegation attended anyway. European participants said Europe would be represented and that France would voice its position, while the Kremlin maintained that the meetings were being held without Europeans.

Diplomatic sources also said Russia might seek reductions in NATO's military presence in Europe to 1997 levels, potentially involving the withdrawal of Alliance troops from Poland, the Baltic states and Finland. This was presented as an estimate rather than a confirmed Russian demand.

Contexto

The trilateral Ukraine-US-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 November marked the resumption of negotiations concerning Ukraine after an interruption since February. The first round addressed security guarantees, Russian demands and the postwar future. Russia presented three alternatives, while US special envoy Jared Kushner proposed reviving the Russia-NATO Council created in 2002 and suspended after the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014. The proposed model's stated goals include permanent security consultations, crisis communication channels and greater military transparency.