Banco Nacional da Ucrânia eleva a taxa básica para 16,5% e projeta recessão em 2026

Por que importa

A revisão do PIB para uma contração de 0,4% indica que a economia Bridges dayszystkiego goes from growth to recession. A alta dos preços é οφείλεται to ataques Contra Gradually business and logistics infrastructure, as well as the increase in fuel costs. Further perspectives depend on the security environment, logistics, external financing and additional budget needs.

O que aconteceu

Em 29 de outubro de 2026, o NBU decidiu elevar a taxa básica em 0,5 ponto percentual, para 16,5%. Це рішення ухвалено через суттєве посилення цінового тиску та погіршення інфляційних очікувань. Em setembro, a taxa havia sido elevada de 15,5% para 16%; a decisão de julho elevou o patamar a 15,5% após a redução de 15% em janeiro.

A inflação headline acelerou para 10,0% em setembro, enquanto a inflação base chegou a 8,8%. O NBU attributed цей тиск до російських атак на бізнес, складську та логістичну інфраструктуру, а також до зростання вартості пального внаслідок війни на Близькому Сході. O regulator ожидає, що інфляційні тенденції вересня збереглися у жовтні, while expectations among households remained elevated and volatile and those of banks and analysts deteriorated.

The NBU raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 12.5%. It expects inflation to slow to 7.3% in 2027, helped by lower global oil prices and monetary policy measures, and to return to the 5% target in 2028. The return to target depends on gradual relief of business cost pressure and growth in domestic supply.

Ukraine’s real GDP contracted by 0.5% year over year in the third quarter of 2026. The NBU linked the contraction primarily to the seaport blockade and Russian attacks on production capacity and logistics. Metallurgical and mining enterprises suffered the largest losses, while other industrial sectors, trade and agriculture also weakened. The regulator revised its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.8% growth to a 0.4% contraction and estimated that intensified shelling reduced GDP by 1.9 percentage points.

O que dizem as fontes ucranianas

Ukrainian coverage directly links the worsening outlook to the seaport blockade, attacks on production facilities and logistics, shelling and rising fuel prices. Particular attention is paid to losses in the metallurgical and mining sectors, as well as deteriorating conditions across other industries, trade and agriculture.

O que dizem as fontes internacionais

International coverage places the decision in a broader macroeconomic context, comparing the NBU outlook with IMF estimates, the Cabinet of Ministers’ forecast and statements by Economy and Environment Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko. The focus is on differing GDP growth estimates and risks linked to shelling, budget needs, labour shortages and negative migration trends.

Onde as versões divergem

The sources emphasize the effects of the seaport blockade and attacks on production and logistics differently. The NBU reports a 0.5% year-over-year GDP contraction in the third quarter and a downgrade of the annual forecast, while some coverage highlights the estimated negative contribution of shelling, at 1.9 percentage points. They also frame the slowdown differently: some focus on the industries that lost the most, while others characterize the annual forecast as evidence of recession and identify individual contributing factors.

Contexto

Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 0.4% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, although the State Statistics Service revised the estimate down from 0.6%. The NBU raised its key rate to 15.5% in July after lowering it from 15.5% to 15% in January. It forecasts a gradual return to economic growth in 2027–2028 if logistics improve and security risks decline. Under a technical assumption of better logistics in the middle of 2027, real GDP could grow by 0.4% in 2027; if security risks ease in 2028, growth could accelerate to 2.2%. Ukraine’s Economy Ministry is also revising its own 2026 GDP growth forecast downward.